Field Guide
B2B payments: stablecoins and blockchain payments
06
Market and trends
2 min read · Chapter 6 of 10
Who holds the power
- Issuers hold the freeze button, decide who may redeem directly, and set the fees.
- Distributors hold the customers and the balances, and take a growing share of the interest.
- Orchestrators and ramps hold bank access, licences and the API, which is why they're being bought.
- Banks hold the dollars at both ends and the reserves, and can refuse crypto-linked money.
- Card networks moved from watching to owning ramps and validating chains.
- Chains hold little power when anyone can validate, and a lot when a named club does, as on Arc and Tempo.
- Regulators and courts reach holders only through issuers and intermediaries, and the issuer's freeze is their lever of choice.
- The payer and payee hold power until the send. After it, they have only the contract.
The scarce things are bank access with the licences to use it, the customer relationship and API, and the float. The chain is the cheapest part.
Tailwinds and headwinds
The forces I'd watch over the next couple of years. Companies that own the customer and a licence come out ahead on most.
Tailwinds:
| What's changing | Who gains | Who loses |
|---|---|---|
| A legal footing: the GENIUS Act takes effect by January 2027, and Circle's trust bank got final OCC approval in July 2026. | Circle, Paxos, Bridge (Stripe), banks that issue | Unlicensed issuers; offshore coins in the US from 2028 |
| Rates went up: the Fed raised by a quarter point on September 16, 2026, to 3.75-4.00%. | Circle, Tether, Coinbase and other distributors | Holders, who earn nothing from issuers; orchestrators with no float |
| The networks joined: Visa's stablecoin settlement passed a $20 billion annualized run rate in September 2026, more than 15 times a year earlier. | Visa, Mastercard (BVNK), orchestrators, Circle and Stripe | Correspondent banks on treasury moves |
| Banks are joining in: 21 banks committed to a joint stablecoin in September 2026, and the Zelle owner banks launched ZelleUSD in June. | Banks; custody and infrastructure vendors (BitGo, Fireblocks, Anchorage Digital) | Crypto-native issuers' pricing power |
| Accounting is getting clearer: FASB proposed in August 2026 a test for counting stablecoins as cash equivalents. | Treasurers; issuers that offer direct redemption (Circle, Paxos) | Coins without direct redemption |
Headwinds:
| What's changing | Who gains | Who loses |
|---|---|---|
| Supply stalled at about $310 billion, flat for 12 months after growing about half in 2025. | Banks and non-bank FX providers, which keep the flows | Issuers' growth plans (PayPal, Paxos, Circle) |
| A rebate war over the float: Open USD, USDG and Circle's Binance deal all hand interest to partners. | Distributors (Coinbase, Binance) and partners such as Shopify | Circle's margin; small issuers |
| The fight over rewards: a bill banning interest-like rewards on idle balances failed in the Senate in September 2026 and could return. | Banks, which fear deposits leaving | Coinbase, which pays rewards each quarter; PayPal's reported PYUSD rewards |
| Incumbents got cheaper: non-bank FX at 0.24-0.9%, and US instant rails at $0.045 a payment between banks. | Non-bank FX providers; The Clearing House and the Fed | Margins on stablecoin routes; orchestrators |
| Rules split by region: the EU limits non-euro coins, Brazil treats coins as FX, and the US limits foreign coins from 2028. | USDC and EURC; licensed local ramps | Tether in those markets; ramps without local licences |
The one number I'd watch is the share of reserve income Circle pays to distributors each quarter (61% in the quarter to June 2026), because the rebate war shows up there first.