Field Guide
06
Market and trends
4 min read · Chapter 6 of 10
Who holds the power
Power here follows whoever holds the cash, the data or the limit, and that's rarely your customer.
- Payer AP teams choose the rail and remittance channel, refuse portals, set long terms, write compliance manuals and deduct first. Large payers (retailers, governments, enterprises) dictate; small sellers comply.
- Payers' banks and AP platforms sell virtual card programs that move card costs onto suppliers. That's the other network competing for the same payment.
- Sponsor banks have the most day-to-day power over an AR fintech, up to stopping its origination, and have tightened since the Fed's and FDIC's 2024 enforcement orders over fintech oversight.
- Credit insurers and lenders hold the limit, which is a credit decision in disguise: an insurer that cuts a customer's limit stops shipments as surely as the credit team does. Canada's export credit agency had put about C$3B of a C$5B tariff-response program to work by August 2026.
- Sales and credit fight over holds and terms inside the seller. My guess, not yet tested, is that sales usually wins the release.
- Card networks and the courts set what cards cost. Visa and Mastercard's revised merchant settlement (preliminarily approved June 9, 2026) would let merchants decline or surcharge higher-cost card categories, commercial cards included. If it's approved, sellers would no longer have to accept commercial cards.
- ERP vendors own the invoice record and can embed their own payments; rail operators and regulators set return windows, limits and registration.
Tailwinds and headwinds
These are the forces I'd expect anyone in order to cash to be watching as of October 2026. Each one helps some players and hurts others, and several are the same fight seen from two sides: the buyer's payment networks against the seller's tools.
Tailwinds:
| What's changing | Who gains | Who loses |
|---|---|---|
| Payers keep moving off paper checks, and the Fed has asked whether to wind down its own check services. | AR software that converts payers (Billtrust, Versapay, HighRadius, BILL); payer networks (Paymode, Corpay); the ACH and instant rails | Banks' lockbox and check-processing fees (JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, RBC), though they sell the replacement too |
| SAP's mainstream maintenance for its older ERP ends in 2027, so many sellers will choose their order-to-cash tools again during the move. | SAP, Oracle NetSuite, Microsoft Dynamics 365, Sage, Intuit QuickBooks; AR vendors with certified connectors (HighRadius, Esker, Billtrust) | AR tools tied to on-premise ERPs; sellers mid-migration, whose cash application can stall during cutover |
| AR vendors now sell AI agents that match payments, write dunning and work deductions, though none has published results yet. | HighRadius, Tabs, Billtrust, Esker, Versapay; ERPs that ship agents in the suite, such as SAP | AR headcount and outsourced cash-application work; tools priced per seat |
| FedNow and RTP now take business payments of up to $10 million with full remittance data, and Canada's Real-Time Rail is due to start. | The Clearing House, the Fed, banks offering Request for Payment (JPMorgan Chase); sellers who need final funds fast | Banks' wire fees; cards on large tickets; payers who counted on check float |
| More receivables are being sold or financed, and US factoring volume grew by about a third in 2025. | Triumph Financial, eCapital, TreviPay, Slope, Visa, JPMorgan Chase, EDC | Sellers' margins, since factoring costs a few percent a month; credit insurers when a financier takes the risk instead |
Headwinds:
| What's changing | Who gains | Who loses |
|---|---|---|
| Buyers' AP networks enrol suppliers into virtual cards and paid "enhanced ACH", so the supplier pays for the buyer's payment. | Corpay, AvidXchange, Paymode, SAP Business Network, Coupa; Visa, Mastercard, American Express and card issuers | Sellers' margins; seller-side AR vendors that want to own the payment (Billtrust, Versapay, HighRadius, BILL) |
| Interest earned on money in transit is falling, and BILL's float income dropped 8% in its latest fiscal year. | Sellers carrying receivables, if lower rates make waiting cheaper | BILL, Corpay, AvidXchange; AR vendors that hold funds (Billtrust, Versapay); banks' deposit spreads |
| Accounting systems and payment processors now bundle invoicing, payments and matching, and Stripe said its billing, invoicing and tax suite was on track for a $1 billion run rate. | Intuit QuickBooks, Stripe, SAP, Oracle NetSuite, Sage, Microsoft Dynamics 365 | Standalone AR tools at the small end and lower mid-market (BILL, Versapay, Billtrust); Tabs, if ERPs ship their own agents |
| If approved, the Visa and Mastercard settlement would let sellers refuse or surcharge commercial cards. | Sellers, especially distributors on thin margins; ACH and instant rails; AR vendors pushing ACH | Virtual-card networks (Corpay, AvidXchange, Paymode); issuers (JPMorgan Chase, American Express, Citi); card margin at AR platforms (BILL, Billtrust); Visa and Mastercard |
| More than two in five companies say customer reluctance is the main barrier to electronic payments, and the share is rising. | Lockbox banks; payer networks that already hold the payer (Paymode, Corpay) | AR vendors whose case rests on converting payers (Billtrust, Versapay, HighRadius, BILL); sellers' DSO |
The one thing I'd watch is whether the card settlement gets final approval, because it decides whether suppliers can turn down the virtual cards that buyers' networks push on them.